A new Elimu-Soko discussion paper sets out a practical framework for measuring public system strengthening in the education sector.
Promising education innovations too often remain donor-funded projects: they improve outcomes while support lasts but never become part of how government routinely delivers education. Tighter aid budgets make this longstanding problem more urgent.
So how do we know whether innovation partnerships are strengthening the public system’s own capability to deliver and sustain better outcomes? Today, most strengthening claims rest on inputs and coverage counted during the grant: children reached, teachers trained, budgets announced. Our new discussion paper, How Stronger Systems Take Root, proposes a better test.
Three levels of evidence
The capability to adopt and sustain effective reforms “cannot be observed directly; it is inferred from its exercise.” The framework therefore looks for evidence at three levels, each stronger than the last:
- Level 1: Absorbed. Government took the reform on, shown by four conditions in place, with outcomes holding under government-led delivery.
- Level 2: Held. The reform survived the withdrawal of intensive support and a change of leadership, confirmed by a review 18 to 24 months after exit.
- Level 3: Repeated. Government ran a second cycle itself, for a problem it chose, with less outside help than the first.
Four conditions: what breaks when the partner leaves?
“Take the partner away and ask what breaks.” For a reform to keep running, four things have to be in place:
- An owner inside government
- Money that recurs
- People who can do the work
- Evidence government steers by
Each condition is read at the point of use, not on paper: “A budget can be allocated and never released. Staff can be trained and never deploy the training. A data system can run and change no decision.” Outcomes are tracked alongside, because “absorption is worth nothing if outcomes do not hold.”
Built to be used
The paper is practical by design. It includes a readiness gate before piloting begins; stages to track each condition from external to embedded; six leading signals, each paired with a “regression twin”; and a one-page template for recording a cycle, which government and partner sign together.
A message for funders
A funder seeking absorption should reserve funding for the transition and agree when evidence under government-led delivery will be sufficient to judge results. As the paper puts it: “Most grants close before that point, which is why the sector has so many evaluated pilots and so few judged reforms.”
Honest about where we stand
Elimu-Soko’s oldest work, in Rwanda and Zanzibar, is one cycle each and only now old enough for the sustainment test. In both, government adopted the reform and now funds it. Durability remains to be tested, and repeatable capability has not yet been shown. In the paper’s own words: “Let the claim be no larger than the evidence.”
Use it, test it, tell us what you learn
We intend to test and refine the framework through our upcoming government engagements, and invite governments, funders and practitioners to use it and share what they learn.
Authors: Alim Ladha, Devang Vussonji, Dr Muna Ngenda and Keshinee Shah.